Finance Minister Yannis Stournaras felt compelled last week to call into a TV news show to deny rumors about imminent property tax hikes for Greeks. He argued there had been a lot of “scaremongering” by the media and politicians relating to the creation of a new property tax, which would unify several levies on real estate that currently exist.
Tax has become an increasingly sensitive issue in Greece. As wages shrink and jobs disappear, nobody is looking forward to the prospect of paying more into public coffers. But anxiety has been spurred by the voting of a new tax bill in January, which increased income and corporate tax and scrapped the tax-free threshold with the aim of raising 2.3 billion euros.
Furthermore, a recent international study by KPMG showed that Greeks pay the second-highest effective income tax and social security contributions at 46.5 percent of their income. Given this burden and the slow progress on ensuring that a sizable minority does not consistently get away without paying its share, it is no surprise that the issue of tax raises hackles in Greece each time it enters the public debate.
Posted in Economy, Greece
Tagged cyclically adjusted deficit, ECB, European Central Bank, European Commission, fiscal multipliers, Greece, Greek bailout, Greek economy, IMF, International Monetary Fund, Olivier Blanchard, Recession, Troika
For Greece, the underlying theme of this crisis has been swapping one set of uncertainties for another. In fact, sometimes the uncertainties have been exactly the same, simply repackaged and rebranded. From George Papaconstantinou’s “loaded gun on the table,” to the first bailout in May 2010, from the mid-term fiscal plan in the summer of 2011 to the October 27 haircut agreement last year, from the PSI and second bailout early this year to the European assurances ahead of this summer’s elections: each development has promised stability, continued membership of the euro and better days ahead; each has crumbled into an empire of dust.
Now, hopes are being pinned to the Brussels debt deal agreed in the early hours of Tuesday morning. The immense relief at an agreement being reached is both understandable and justified. The prospect of the eurozone and International Monetary Fund failing to find any common ground on how to make Greek debt sustainable would have led to potentially devastating economic and existential implications for the single currency area and Greece. However, as this relief subsides, it becomes more evident that this deal takes a stab at providing a definitive solution to Greece’s debt problem but falls short, leaving the sword of Damocles dangling over the country. Even if the debt reduction program goes according to plan – and there are doubts whether it will, especially due to questions over the bond buyback scheme – Greece will still have to contend with a debt of 124 percent of GDP in 2020. It is also doubtful whether enough has been done to remove the niggling doubts about Greece’s future in the minds of investors, who are so necessary to helping change the course of the Greek economy. JP Morgan referred to the Brussels pact as a moment of “creative ambiguity.”
Posted in Economy, European Union, Greece
Tagged Bond buyback, debt sustainability, euro, eurozone, Greece, Greek bonds, Greek crisis, Greek debt, Greek economy, Growth, IMF, primary deficit, Recession
It is a sad indictment of the manner in which the Greek crisis has been handled by all sides that for probably the first time since the economic unravelling began about three years ago, moderates in Athens as well as other eurozone capitals looked at each other in the wake of another inconclusive Eurogroup meeting on Wednesday and wondered: “Why did we ever get involved with these guys?”
The rest of the eurozone’s grievances with Greece – many justified, some the product of stereotyping – have been well documented but the inconclusive 11 hours of discussions between eurozone finance ministers in Brussels this week tipped the balance the other way. It was the turn of level-headed Greeks, fully aware of their own country’s shortcomings, to fume about their euro partners’ footdragging and failings.
Yet, just as it has been unfair for Europeans to have undue expectations of Greece, so it is excessive for Greeks to expect 16 eurozone countries to each easily overcome their national concerns and promptly agree a strategy that would make Greek debt sustainable.
Posted in Economy, European Union, Greece
Tagged Debt restructuring, euro, Eurogroup, eurozone, Greece, Greek bailout, Greek crisis, Greek debt, IMF, OSI, Recession