Looking for answers to Greece’s impossible multiple choice

Illustration by Manos Symeonakis

Greece is trying to complete a multiple-choice test in which all the answers are wrong. Sunday’s elections could have hardly produced a more fragmented result, one from which you can add up the numbers any way you want but not get the response you’re looking for. Efforts to form a unity government are due to fall flat — barring a last-minute successful intervention from President Karolos Papoulias. They seemed doomed to failure because none of the parties are taking on board constructive messages from the election result.

Representatives of the Coalition of the Radical Left (SYRIZA) and the Independent Greeks, as well as others, have suggested that Sunday’s outcome is proof that 68 percent of voters reject the terms of the EU-IMF bailout. In fact, so emboldened by his party’s remarkable surge to 16.78 percent, SYRIZA leader Alexis Tsipras is poised to write to EU officials to declare the loan deal null and void because of the way people voted on Sunday. This is presumptuous on behalf of the leftist leader.

One swing of the wrecking ball

We expected the two parties that have ruled Greece since 1974 to go through a staggered collapse, possibly over the course of two or three elections, but we are already surveying the debris today: The wrecking ball came in one fell swoop and left New Democracy and PASOK in ruins from which they will find it difficult to rebuild themselves.

ND and PASOK had been in gradual decline since 2000 but the economic crisis sent them tumbling over the edge of the cliff. Their worst combined showing in a general election since 1981 was in 2009, before the crisis struck, when they gained 79 percent of the vote. Today, they hold only about 40 percent of that. In 2009, New Democracy had its worst-ever election performance, drawing just 33 percent. Today, it can’t even muster that together with PASOK. Rarely in European politics has such a dramatic collapse been seen in such a short period of time.

PASOK and New Democracy: Still standing on Sunday?

There is little doubt that Sunday’s elections will deal painful blows to both PASOK and New Democracy. The question, though, is whether they will be knockout blows. Most indications are that despite their declining popularity Greece’s two main parties will survive.

Since 1981, PASOK and New Democracy have only once received a combined share of the vote that is less than 79 percent. This was in the most recent national elections, in 2009. It was the fourth consecutive elections in which the two parties saw their share of the vote decline but it would take a drop of monumental proportions on Sunday to keep the Socialists and conservatives from being in a position to form a government.

All that glitters

Photo by Odysseas Hiltidis

In elections gone by, Aristotelous Square in Thessaloniki would have been occupied by party stands and perhaps fervent supporters cheering on a political leader with just a few days to go to polling day. Last Thursday, though, only a clutch of Halkidiki residents were in the square. They had a message to convey, not a political one, though.

They were there to inform passers-by about why they are opposed to gold mining in their area. The presence of the so-called “anti-gold” movement in the heart of Thessaloniki rather than the flag-waving, banner-holding party faithful tells two important stories. One is of the momentous political transition that Greece is going through, one that has eroded people’s confidence in the parties they blindly followed for decades. But the other is of Greece’s ambiguous relationship with investment — particularly if it comes from abroad — and economic development.

Greece’s painful political transition

My fourth policy paper for the Friedrich Ebert Stiftung has just been published. It is on the subject of the Greek elections, what else? The aim is to look at the dominant themes in this campaign and the factors that Greeks will be contemplating before they cast their ballots on May 6. Despite the campaign being dominated by the rather sterile pro-/anti-bailout debate, there are actually a number of themes that will play a role in forming people’s opinions.

As the title suggests, this paper is an attempt to create a snapshot of the Greek political scene at a time when it is going through a major transition. As a result, parts of the picture will be blurry and incomplete because events are moving fast and there is no clear conclusion in sight. Nevertheless, I hope it provides readers with an insight into the tremendous economic, social and political changes Greece is undergoing.

You can read the paper in English here: http://library.fes.de/pdf-files/id/09061.pdf

You can read the paper in German here: http://library.fes.de/pdf-files/id/09060.pdf